THE DEMO RECALL BLUES

California Democrats woke up to a nasty shock this week…the (possibly growing) possibility that Arnold Schwarzenegger could actually become the next governor of this state. In one of the most Democratic-leaning states in the nation, how could this happen? Credit California Republicans with some pretty good generaliship. But also note a series of rolling Democratic Party mistakes, compounding exponentially, each one rising upon the last until it seems that only a last-minute miracle can save the election.

Five days from now, if the recall is defeated or if Cruz Bustamante wins the governorship, few newspapers are going to bother to talk about any Democratic Party errors. On the other hand, if Schwarzenegger wins, getting a word in edgewise about "what went wrong for the Demos" will be like trying to merge onto 880 at 5:15. So me, I’ll get my digs in early. Here are my Four Major Mistakes Why The Recall Got Out Of The Democrats’ Hands (even if the Democrats eventually end up winning by fate or luck):

Mistake #1: Ignoring Angry Democrats

During the early days of the recall…first, when the petitions were being circulated and later, when the recall had been certified…Democratic Party leaders portrayed it as part of a Republican plot–going back to 2000–to steal elections. That helped to rally hard-core Democrats, true. But it failed to win over that small, solid core California Democrats who were angry with Gray Davis about being the governor of the big donors, and about his actions (or, more properly, his inactions) at the height of the energy crisis. So angry, in fact, that they were willing to sign the recall petitions, and vote "yes" on the recall ballot. That core of angry Democrats–10% to 15% of the total?–were the sole reason why the recall ever had the chance. If the Democratic Party had a plan to address their concerns, it never showed up during the recall campaign.

Mistake #2: Dithering At The Beginning

In the first weeks after the certification of the recall petition, the California Democratic Party accepted the Gray Davis strategy that the way to beat the recall was to keep any Democrat off the ballot. Good for Davis, sure, because it would force Democrats to choose between the unpopular Gray or the evil, election-stealing Republicans. Bad for California Democrats, if they wanted to keep the governorship in Democratic hands. Then, when it became increasingly clear that Davis might lose the recall, Democratic leaders spent another couple of fruitless weeks trying to convince Senator Diane Feinstein to enter the race, even though she made it quite clear that she was not interested. By the time Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante got settled on as the Democratic candidate, critical time had been wasted, momentum lost.

Mistake #3: Missing (Again…See Mistake #1) What The Recall Was All About

The underlying disaffection about Gray Davis is the perception that he is the governor of big money donors. But the recall was made possible primarily by citizen anger over the budget: how did we go from comfortable surpluses to huge deficits and cuts? Like an angry father looking at his pregnant teenage daughter, Californians counted the months back to the energy crisis and saw two possible culprits: the oil companies who juked California out of billions of dollars by manipulating the deregulated energy market, or the governor (Gray Davis) who did practically nothing until our money was well on its way to Texas. The Republicans made this an election about Gray Davis. The Democrats should have made it an election about how the Republicans deregulated the energy market, thereby letting big oil rip us off. But to do so, they had to back a candidate who could say, yes, Gray Davis should have done more to get us out of the mess, but it was Pete Wilson Republicanism that got us in the mess. But by dithering around in the beginning of the recall campaign (see Mistake #2), the Democratic Party never coalesced around a candidate (Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi? State Treasurer Phil Angelides? State Attorney General Bill Lockyer?) who might have run such a campaign. Instead, the Democratic Party, by default, got stuck with one of the worst imaginable candidates: Cruz Bustamante, who was a mistake all by his lonesome.

Mistake #4: Running The Wrong Candidate

Why was Bustamante such a bad candidate? First, he lacked the public passion to put (like General Lee used to say) fire on the Republican hills, which Democrats needed to take the attention away from Gray Davis (think Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan at their best). Second, in his various big donor fumbles throughout the campaign, Bustamante reminded Democrats too much of the things about Gray Davis that many Democrats despise. Third, and maybe most important, Bustamante was estranged from the one constituency that a California Democrat absolutely needs to win statewide office: African-Americans. In late September, Bendixen & Associates conducted a poll that showed Bustamante was the choice of only 17% of African-American voters, the most loyal and lockstep of Democrats.

Five days before the recall, Democrats can still win. But it will have to be in spite of, instead of because of, its state party’s strategies. This has been a bumble from beginning to almost-end.