"This Race Is Still Very Much In Play"

By Joe Tuman
November 4, 2010

Dear Oaklanders,

Thank you all for your notes of encouragement--but I want to assure you that this race is still very much in play.

One hour ago [around 10:30 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 4] I spoke at length with the Alameda County Registrar of Voters, and he assured me that the final result in this election might take another one to two weeks to verify. That is because there are a huge number of provisional and absentee ballots, county-wide, which still have to be verified and counted. When I say a huge number, I mean one that may reach (for Alameda County) into the six digit range. Oakland is the County seat, and will undoubtedly have a large share of these votes. Theoretically, if they are counted, they may mean that one of the candidates has already won (doubtful with ten candidates), or more likely, that the order at the top might shift. As of today I am behind Rebecca Kaplan in the rankings (in fourth place to her third)--but the additional votes may alter that for me--jut as it may possibly change her rankings, or Jean Quan's, or Don Perata's. The truth is, with so many votes to still count, we do not know as of today.

To make things more confusing, the Registrar is being pressured to make calculations for instant run-off, starting Friday--even though this will only be based on votes that have already been cast. This will only be preliminary, however, since the algorithm to do this must be based on ALL votes cast--and the others won't have been counted for another week or two. At best, this will give some kind of incomplete snapshot of where the election may go--but without the other votes, we'll be no closer to knowing the outcome than we are today.

So, have faith and be patient. Nothing is decided yet. All we know for certain today is that based upon those ballots already cast and counted, we are in fourth place. Let the process run its course.

- Joe Tuman

 

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